Severity, extent of disaster damage on agricultural production systems, economic losses affecting livelihood, social and economic perspective; Crop Loss: quantity, quality, yield, sustainability, insects, pest and disease incidence

This guidance note has been prepared as a guide to assist Pacific Island Countries following disasters affecting the agriculture sector. It describes the requirements and steps required in undertaking post-disaster damage, loss and needs assessment in all of the sub-sectors of agriculture.

I.             Purpose of This Guidance Note

This guidance notes aims to improve the existing assessment methodology of the Pacific Island Countries in comprehensively assessing the impacts of natural disasters in the agriculture sector and in identifying post-disaster needs. The concepts, methodologies and definitions used on this guidance notes are consistent with those developed by international agencies like the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) as modified by the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction of the World Bank (GFDRR/WB), the United Nations agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the European Union, among others. These concepts are now used as the international standards in post-disaster damage and loss assessments from which post disaster needs are based on.

The proposed improvements, as contained in this guidance notes, have the following advantages:

 1. The assessment of disaster effects can be completed expeditiously without sacrificing accuracy. With baseline information and instructions in the valuation of damages and losses, trained assessment specialists can do the work with minimal direct surveys.

2. With the concepts on damages and losses, the methods can be used to assess the effects and impacts of: a. sudden-onset natural disasters like flash typhoons, floods, earthquakes, etc.; b. slow-onset natural disasters like drought, salt water intrusion and other climate change-related phenomena; c. epidemics like SARS and avian flu; and civil unrest that may cause disruption or temporary stoppage of normal economic activities.

3. The concepts are based on sectors which are consistent with the national accounting system, thus, the values of the damages and losses can be used by the Government planning and/or finance agencies in estimating the impacts of a disaster on macroeconomic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP), budget deficit, balance of payment, inflation and employment for the year the disaster occurred and beyond.

4. Development partners will have a better perspective of the impacts of disasters which will enable them to respond to the needs of individual countries accordingly. 5. A simple computer program, which can expedite estimations, can be created using the said concepts and methods described in this guidance note. 6. The methods can be used in calculating the economic cost-benefit analysis of proposed disaster preparedness and mitigation programs and projects as well as climate change related activities.

It should be noted, however, that the quantified value of damages and losses in agriculture as described in this guidance notes do not include the expenditures spent for the emergency phase like search and rescue (SAR) operations; mass evacuation into temporary shelters; feeding of evacuees; water, sanitation and disease prevention; protection and security operations and other humanitarian assistance. The recovery and reconstruction needs that will be included here will refer to the needs identified based on the assessed damages and losses aimed at restoring the productivity and livelihoods in the agriculture sector. There are no definite time durations as to when each post-disaster phase (emergency, recovery and reconstruction) will end and the next one will commence. In major disasters, the emergency phase can last up to more than a month before recovery activities can commence. In most cases, there are overlaps in the activities of the various phases.

In this guidance notes, the agriculture sector covers the following sub-sectors:

1. Seasonal crops (or crops) - rice, corn, vegetables and other crops grown and harvested within certain seasons of the year.

2. Permanent crops - those that require a certain period of time to mature before produce can be harvested regularly like coconut, fruit trees, coffee and others.

3. Forestry - forest products like timber and rattan, among others.

4. Livestock – animals grown like cattle, swine, poultry, etc. 5. Fisheries - includes both inland and marine fisheries.

6. Infrastructure – the physical assets that are related to agriculture like irrigation facilities, warehouses, mills, animal sheds, fish cages, etc.

The following are the sections of this guidance note:

 1. The general framework and concepts in assessing damages and losses.

2. The required baseline information.

3. Steps in assessing damages and losses.

4. Steps and issues to be considered in identifying recovery and reconstruction needs.

5. Additional required information that will expedite assessment and needs identification.

II.           Framework in Improving Damage Assessment in the Agriculture Sector In accordance with the Handbook for Estimating the Socio-economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters of the ECLAC and the subsequent work of the GFDRR, there are generally three (3) classifications of disaster effects that are quantified in this guidance note, and these are damages, losses and macroeconomic impacts. However, other impacts are also described here although not quantified.

A. Damages

1. Damages are the effects on assets or stocks and valued as the cost of: a. Replacement of totally destroyed assets. Replacement cost is the value of the asset just before it was totally destroyed.

b. Repair of partially destroyed assets. Repair cost is the amount required to put the asset back into its condition just before its partial destruction.

III.          Assets, in general, will include infrastructure like roads, bridges, buildings, equipment and economic installations like power, water supply systems, transportation and communication, irrigation systems, etc. 3. Damages will also include the value of lost inventory of goods like agricultural products and inputs; equipment, machinery; and raw materials for production, among others. 4. In agriculture, damages will be the cost of replacement of the totally destroyed assets or the cost of repair of partially destroyed physical assets and infrastructure such as: a. structures like animal sheds, storage, ice plants, etc. b. farm equipment and machineries c. irrigation systems d. stocks like animals, fertilizers, seeds, veterinary needs, etc. e. ready-to-harvest crops f. totally destroyed permanent trees and crops coconuts, coffee, plantations, etc.      

5. Ready-to-harvest crops that were destroyed by disasters are considered part of damages. They are valued as the farm gate prices for these crops.

6. The value of totally destroyed permanent trees and crops will be the cost of replanting such types of trees.

7. Damages should be valued at pre-disaster prices.

B. Losses

1. Losses are effects on economic flows and will be the value of lost output or income due to the disruption of the normal flow of goods and services in the economy.

2. Losses are measured as the pre-disaster value of goods and services that were not and/or will not be produced or rendered over a time span (broken down per annum) due to the disaster until full recovery is attained.

3. Losses in the agriculture sector will include: a. Reduced income from planted crops, livestock, fisheries, forestry, etc. after they were affected by disasters.

b. Future income from harvests due to the destruction of land by floods, landslides, prolonged droughts, etc.

c. Foregone income from harvests due to the destruction of permanent crops and trees.

d. Additional expenses to clean up the debris of destruction, retrieval of assets, etc.

e. Investment losses or higher production costs.

It should be noted that:

4. In agriculture, an important type of loss is the investment loss of farmers and/or growers when their standing crops (or fish stocks) are totally destroyed by a disaster. If this happens, and the farmers (or growers) are not able to replant (or replace the fish stocks), the value of investment put into the destroyed crops (or fish stock) will be considered as loss.

5. If the farmers (or growers) will replant (or replace the fish stocks) in time to harvest within the year, it will be as if the farmers (or growers) incurred a higher production cost to produce the same volume of harvest within the year. The total cost of production for the same output within the year will be the normal production cost plus the investment losses they incurred due to the disaster. The above two concepts are important because they have a bearing in the calculation for the impact on the GDP.

6. For the other sectors, the example of losses are,

a. The opportunity losses of public transport vehicles if their operations are temporarily stopped due to collapsed bridges or roads closed by landslide.

b. Foregone incomes of hotels due to cancelled arrival of tourists.

c. Increases in financial outlays of the government in the provision of essential services d. Reduction of expected income of the government like lower fees and taxes.

e. Reduction in industrial production due to damages to factories; limited access to raw materials due to damages in agriculture; transport difficulties caused by collapsed transport system like roads, bridges, airports and seaports.

The effects to the other sectors of the damages and losses in crops, fisheries, livestock and forestry should not be counted in the agriculture sector. They should accrue to the sector where they belong. For example, if a food manufacturer uses cassava as input to their production, any losses suffered by the manufacturer due to the limited supply of cassava after a disaster should be counted in the manufacturing sector.

C. Macroeconomic Impacts

Macroeconomic impacts are the changes caused by disasters to the expected performance of the national economy (or to a regional economy). Depending on the structure of the economy on one hand and the scope and extent of a disaster on the other, the effects on the macroeconomy can extend several years after a disaster has occurred. The following are some of most common affected economic indicators:

1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Reduced production and/or consumption after a disaster will result in lower-than-expected GDP.

2. Prices or inflation. Damages to production assets, closed roads or damaged bridges, etc. will reduce supply of goods and services that will result to increase in prices, especially of prime commodities.

3. Employment. Damages to agriculture, factories, retail shops and other businesses can result in the retrenchment of workers. Higher unemployment and lower taxes collected by the government will both impact adversely on the household level and the national economy.

4. Balance of payment.

Reduction in production of goods for exports and increase in imports to stabilize supply will result in adverse BOP position. However, increased personal or family remittances from abroad after a disaster may offset some of the losses from export earnings. 5. Fiscal balance. Due to emergency expenses, it may be necessary for the government to augment or realign the budget to accommodate relief operations instead of expenditures that are related to economic expansion. Also, losses in overall production and reduction in employment can impact on the income of firms and other related businesses resulting in lower tax revenue collection for the year and the future years. 6. National debt and its repayment. If the cost of recovery and reconstruction will be financed by foreign or domestic borrowings, government indebtedness will increase which can result in larger budget deficits in the succeeding years.

Macroeconomic impacts are normally quantified by national economic planning and/or finance ministries based on the estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture on the losses incurred by the agriculture sector from a disaster.

Other Impacts

D. Poverty incidence

Losses in production and unemployment under a high inflation regime will exacerbate the living conditions of the poor and may raise the poverty incidence in the country. Moreover, basic services provided by the government which are patronized mostly by the poor may be reduced significantly if the damages to such facilities are extensive.

E. Gender Impacts

The condition of women may be severely affected or exacerbated by a disaster event. There can be possible new roles of women as breadwinners for their families; double burden or additional work in the farms and on the house; potential abuse; health deterioration for lactating mothers; etc.

F. Environment

Disaster events can cause the destruction of some environmentally sensitive areas like watershed areas, corrals, mangroves, etc. Volcanic eruptions may cause the rise of air and water temperature which can exacerbate global warming and other phenomena related to climate change.

Every year natural disasters, such as cyclones, floods, fires, earthquakes, and tornadoes, challenge agricultural production.  Because agriculture relies on the weather, climate, and water availability to thrive, it is easily impacted by natural events and disasters.

Agricultural impacts from natural events and disasters most commonly include contamination of water bodies, loss of harvest or livestock, increased susceptibility to disease, and destruction of irrigation systems and other agricultural infrastructure.

These impacts can have long lasting effects on agricultural production including crops, forest growth, and arable lands, which require time to mature. Learning how to prepare for and recover from natural events and disasters will decrease their long-term effects on agriculture and the environment.

Even though natural events and disasters can be devastating to agricultural production, it does not excuse noncompliance with state and federal environmental laws. The links below provide resources and assistance with planning and preparing for and responding and recovering from natural disasters.

 According to  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the agriculture sector – including crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry – absorbs approximately 22 percent of the economic impact caused by medium- and large scale natural hazards and disasters in developing countries;

The agriculture sectors need to be mobilized as proactive implementation partners for the delivery of the post-2015 framework on disaster risk reduction so as to enhance local action and build resilience of the most vulnerable, which are often also the most food insecure.

Disasters and Agriculture the information gap

          Between 2003 and 2013, natural hazards and disasters in developing countries affected more than 1.9 billion people and caused over USD 494 billion in estimated damage. How much of this damage was on the agriculture sector is unreported and is therefore unknown. Global statistics on the economic impact of disasters are collected and reported as a total sum for all sectors, and do not capture the impact on individual sectors. National and international disaster loss databases typically report populations affected and damage to housing and other infrastructure, but seldom report damage or losses in the agriculture sector. As a result, there is no clear understanding of the extent to which natural hazards and disasters impact the agriculture sector and subsectors in developing countries. Yet, sector-specific quantitative data on disaster losses is necessary to understand the breadth and scope of disaster impact on agriculture and livelihoods.

Disasters destroy critical agricultural assets and infrastructure, and they cause losses in the production of crops, livestock and fisheries. They can change agricultural trade flows, and cause losses in agricultural-dependent manufacturing subsectors such as the textile and food processing industries. Disasters can slow economic growth in countries where the sector is important to the economy and where it makes a significant contribution to national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Agriculture contributes as much as 30 percent of national GDP in Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Nepal and Niger among others. When disasters strike, they have a direct impact on the livelihoods and food security of millions of small farmers, pastoralists, fishers and forest-dependent communities in developing countries. Agriculture employs over 30 percent of the labour force in countries such as Bolivia, Cambodia, Cameroon, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, Nicaragua Niger, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam, and over 60 percent of people in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.

          Resilience is understood as the ability to prevent disasters and crises, and to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from them in a timely, efficient and sustainable manner. This includes protecting, restoring and improving food and agricultural systems under threats that impact food security, nutrition, agriculture and/or food safety/public health. Ultimately, the adoption of agricultural technologies that help prevent, mitigate or reduce the underlying risks needs to be informed by a clear understanding of the way in which disasters impact on crop, livestock, fisheries or forestry production, or the type of hazards which have the greatest impact on each subsector. It requires a better understanding of how disasters compromise food security and nutrition, sector growth and national economies

Estimating the impact of disasters on agriculture and livelihoods

Given the lack of global statistics on disaster losses in agriculture, FAO applied a combination of methods and used several sources of information to estimate the economic impact on the sector. The study covered natural hazards, namely drought, floods, storms such as cyclones and hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions, affecting developing countries between 2003 and 2013, and focused on the following five key areas of analysis:

1. Calculating the trends in damage and losses caused by medium- to large-scale disasters in the sector, based on a review of post-disaster needs assessments that were undertaken during the last decade in developing countries; and estimating the damage caused by natural hazards on crops and livestock based on data from DesInventar;

2. Estimating losses in crop and livestock production in developing countries affected by medium- to large-scale disasters during the same period;

3. Estimating changes in trade flows, particularly increases in the value of imports and decreases in the value of exports;

4. Estimating the impact of drought on Sub-Sah haran Africa, particularly in terms of populations affected and crop and livestock production losses over the past decade. A more in-depth analysis was done on droughts and their impact on food insecurity in the Horn of Africa;

5. Calculating the humanitarian aid invested in the post-disaster recovery of the agriculture sector over the past decade, reflecting in part the economic cost to the international community. The preliminary results of the study reveal high economic losses in the sector due to disasters, as evidenced in the following five sections. Yet, the figures computed may still be underestimating the full economic impact on the sector.

1. Trends in damage and losses caused by medium- and large–scale disasters on the agriculture sector

To identify trends in the economic impact of disasters on crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry, FAO reviewed 78 post-disaster needs assessments undertaken in the aftermath of medium- to large-scale disasters in 48 developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America over the past decade (2003–2013). FAO calculated the damage and losses reported in these post-disaster needs assessments. The findings show that the 78 disasters caused a total of USD 140 billion in damage and losses on all sectors, of which USD 30 billion was on the agriculture sector and subsectors. On average, agriculture absorbs 22 percent of the total economic impact caused by natural hazards.

For climate-related disasters such as floods, droughts and tropical storms, 25 percent of all damage and losses is on the agriculture sector. Agriculture is the single most affected sector by droughts, absorbing on average about 84 percent of all the economic impact

Distribution of damage and losses by subsector

The 78 post-disaster needs assessments reviewed also indicate that, within agriculture, 42 percent of all damage and losses is on the crops subsector, followed by livestock with 36 percent.

Disasters and crops

 Based on the post-disaster needs assessments reviewed, the crop subsector is the most affected by natural hazards. Total damage and losses to the crop subsector amount to about USD 13 billion. Almost 60 percent of these damage and losses were caused by floods, followed by storms with 23 per cent.

Disasters and livestock

Livestock is the second most affected subsector after crops, accounting for USD 11 billion, or 36 percent of all damage and losses reported in the post-disaster needs assessments.

Disasters and fisheries

Out of the 78 disasters reported in the post-disaster needs assessments, 45 of these caused damage and losses to the fisheries subsector totaling USD 1.7 billion, which represents almost 6 percent of all damage and losses within the agriculture sector. Over 70 percent of this economic impact was caused by tsunamis which is an infrequent event, yet storms such as hurricanes and typhoons cause roughly 16 percent of the economic impact on fisheries followed by floods with 10 percent.

Disasters and forestry

The forestry subsector is also negatively affected by natural hazards. Twenty-six disaster events that took place between 2003 and 2013 caused USD 737 million in damage and losses to forestry, which represents 2.4 percent of all damage and losses within the agriculture sector. Hurricanes, typhoons and similar storms have the greatest impact on the forestry subsector.

However, the impact of natural hazards on forestry is not always reported in the postdisaster needs assessments or other types of assessments, and there is therefore limited data on damage to forests and on forest production losses caused by disasters. In addition, forest fires cause significant damage yet the impact is seldom measured. To estimate the damage caused by forest fires FAO calculated the damage reported in the DesInventar database between 2003 and 2013, and found that forest fires damaged a total of 4.9 million hectares of crops, valued at roughly USD 689 million, the vast majority in Latin America. Taking into account the protective functions of forests such as soil, water and biodiversity conservation, the indirect impact of disasters on forestry and the livelihoods of forest dependent people is much higher than the data available and the figures reported.

The damage to crops and livestock – a comparison with DesInventar Data

In order to add an additional layer of analysis on the damage that disasters – including small-scale disasters – cause to crops and livestock, FAO used the DesInventar database, which reports damages to crops in hectares, and to livestock in units lost on the basis of 56 national databases. According to the data reported in DesInventar, 58 million hectares of crops were damaged and 11 million livestock lost due to disasters occurring between 2003 and 2013. FAO used the same data, and the formula applied in the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Global Assessment Report 2013 to calculate the monetary value of this physical damage, which sums up to approximately USD 11 billion. This figure is comparable with the results from 78 post-disaster needs assessments, which covered medium- and large-scale events in 48 countries, indicating a total damage to crops and livestock of around USD 7 billion. Both DesInventar data and the post-disaster needs assessments analysis represent an underestimate of the overall damage caused by natural hazards and disasters on agriculture since they cover 48 to 56 countries only.

2. Production losses in crops and livestock

Given the lack of global data on losses in agriculture, FAO attempted to estimate crop and livestock production losses in countries affected by disasters during the past decade (2003– 2013). For the analysis, a first selection was made of disasters affecting 250 000 people or more, and a second selection was made of disasters when the population affected was above the ten-year average for that country.This allowed for a selection of medium- to larger-scale disasters that are likely to have an impact on production at the national level. National crop production losses were estimated by comparing decreases in the yield, during the year when disasters occurred and the subsequent year, with the yield linear trend (2003–2013). This calculation was applied to cereals, pulses and other primary food and cash crop commodities.Yield losses were multiplied by the area harvested to obtain production losses in tons. These were converted into monetary losses using producer prices. National livestock production losses were estimated by comparing decreases in total production of livestock commodities (cattle and goat meat; cow and goat milk) in the year of disaster and in the subsequent year, with the production linear growth trend (2003–2013).

The result was a total of 67 developing countries that were affected by at least one medium- to larger-scale disaster between 2003 and 2013. In these 67 countries, disasters caused USD 70 billion in crop and livestock production losses.

In addition, the results of the analysis show that 83 percent of crop and livestock production losses are caused by drought (44 percent) and floods (39 percent).

In terms of the regional distribution of production losses, Asia is the most affected region, with total crop and livestock production losses amounting to USD 28 billion or 40 percent of total losses, followed by Africa with USD 26 billion. In relative terms, Africa is the most affected region, having lost 3.9 percent of total expected crop and livestock production, followed by Central Asia with 3.8 percent.

3. Changes in trade flows in crops and livestock

The impact of natural hazards on trade flows was estimated by comparing increases in the value of imports and decreases in the value of exports of primary crop and livestock commodities during the year when disasters occurred and the subsequent year, with the linear trend (2003–2013)12. The results show that the value of agricultural imports increased by USD 18.9 billion and the value of agricultural exports decreased by USD 14.9 billion after major hazards in the countries analysed between 2003 and 2013

4. Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa

Between 2003 and 2013, drought in Sub-Saharan Africa affected 27 countries and nearly 150 million people. FAO estimates that crop and livestock production losses due to these droughts amount to USD 23.5 billion. This represents approximately 77 percent of all production losses caused by droughts worldwide during the same period. It is likely that production losses due to drought in Sub-Saharan Africa are considerably higher.

Drought and food insecurity in the Horn of Africa

FAO estimates that between 2003 and 2013 there has been a total of USD 4.9 billion in crop and livestock production losses caused by droughts in the Horn of Africa. This represents over 20 percent of production losses in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, production losses are likely to be much higher. For example, the post-disaster needs assessment reported USD 10.7 billion in production losses due to the 2008–2011 drought in Kenya alone. In order to analyse the impact of drought on food security in the Horn of Africa, total production losses due to droughts occurring between 2003 and 2013 were converted into losses in calories per capita per day, and compared with national dietary energy supply. The results show that, on average, Kenya has lost 3.7 percent of per capita dietary energy supply after each drought, followed by Ethiopia with 3.3 percent, Somalia with 1.9 percent, and Djibouti with 0.2 percent. However, in the Horn of Africa food insecurity is typically due to a combination of drought, soaring food prices, animal disease and insecurity affecting millions of people every year. On average 9.6 million people required humanitarian assistance on an annual basis in the Horn of Africa.

KENYA: THE IMPACT OF THE 2008–2011 DROUGHT ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR and SubsectorS In Kenya, agriculture accounts for 30 percent of national GDP, it provides 60 percent of total employment and accounts for 65 percent of the country’s total exports. Droughts in Kenya have a considerable impact on livelihoods, agriculture and the national economy. The 2008–2011 drought in the country caused a total of USD 10.7 billion in damages and losses, of which nearly USD 9 billion was on the livestock subsector alone, USD 91 million on the food processing industry, USD 1.5 billion on crops, USD 53 million on fisheries, and USD 85 million on nutrition.

5. Resource flows for agricultural post-disaster recovery

The cost of natural disasters on philippine’s agriculture sector

Disasters in the Philippines have a high impact on its agriculture sector. Between 2006 and 2013 the government estimates that disasters damaged over 6 million hectares of crops. During this period, the total damage and losses in the agriculture sector were estimated by the government to be USD 3.8 billion, caused by 78 natural disasters (2 droughts, 24 floods, 50 typhoons/tropical storms, 1 earthquake and 1 volcanic eruption). Most of the production damage and losses were caused by typhoons/storms, amounting to USD 3.5 billion or 93 percent. The majority of the damage and losses in the agriculture sector were in the crop subsector with USD 3.1 billion. Central Luzon (region 3) has been the most affected by natural hazards during the 2006–2013 period, followed by Davao (region 11), Eastern Visayas (region 8) and Cagayan (region 2). In Bicol (region 5) alone, the total agriculture damage and losses were about USD 260 million, which is 6.8 percent of total damage and losses for the country as a whole. Also, typhoons and tropical storms resulted in damage and losses of USD 221 million or 85 percent of all agriculture damage and losses in Bicol region.

A call for action to build resilient livelihoods

While there are clear indications that natural disasters have a high impact on the agriculture sector, there are major gaps in the data and information available worldwide. National and international disaster loss databases seldom report losses in the sector. As a result, little is known on the types of hazards that cause the greatest sector losses. While droughts affect many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and appear to be increasing in frequency, there is little data on the losses they cause to the agriculture sector and subsectors, and on the full extent of their impact on food security and poverty. The impact on subsectors such as fisheries and forestry is typically under-reported as well. Yet, quantifying and reporting such sector losses is fundamental to understand the challenges and to address them.

Disaster risk reduction measures are necessary to reduce, prevent and mitigate the significant impact of disasters on agriculture. Agricultural growth and productivity depends on food production systems that are resilient against production failure due to shocks and climate variability. This requires a strong emphasis on sector-specific disaster risk reduction measures, technologies and practices, as well as on a more sustainable use and management of vital resources such as land, water, soil nutrients and genetic resources. Yet progress in mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into the agriculture sector is limited. Many countries have national platforms, legislation and policies on disaster risk reduction, but few address agriculture, food security and nutrition with sector-specific disaster risk reduction policies and objectives. Reducing risks and building resilience within agriculture requires a policy environment that is conducive to the full mainstreaming of disaster risk reduction within the sector.

 Sector-specific disaster risk reduction planning is needed and must be included in national agriculture development plans to proactively reduce disaster losses in the sector, enable sector growth and protect the food security and nutrition of vulnerable populations. The four priority areas of disaster risk reduction.

In the post-2015 disaster risk reduction framework should be applied within the agriculture sector and subsectors; they need to be specified as part of national goals to achieve sustainable and productive agriculture systems, including farm technologies and practices that help prevent, mitigate and reduce disaster risks, and sector-specific vulnerability assessments and early warning systems. Financial resources for disaster risk reduction within the agriculture sector are needed to enable actionable results. This is true also at subnational levels, where financing and concrete actions are needed to support local farming communities. In addition to national disaster risk reduction platforms, an institutional architecture is needed within the agriculture sector and subsectors, where key ministries/departments, research institutions, civil society and other relevant national actors contribute to disaster risk reduction planning and implementation within the sector.

Recognizing the critical importance of resilience in agriculture for food security and nutrition, some countries have started to adopt clear policies to mainstream disaster risk reduction across key sectors, such as Pakistan where mainstreaming risk reduction is one of its nine priorities within the National Disaster Risk Management Framework including mainstreaming within the agriculture sector. Other countries such as the United Republic of Tanzania have developed national agriculture development plans that explicitly integrate risk reduction as part of their strategy to achieve sector growth while also building resilience. These examples reflect good practices that need to be replicated and upscaled more broadly in countries where the damage and losses to agriculture caused by disasters is high and therefore compromises sector development objectives for growth and productivity, and undermine national goals to achieve food security

Hanoi, Viet Nam - Natural disasters are costing farmers in the developing world billions of dollars each year, with drought emerging as the most destructive in a crowded field of threats that also includes floods, forest fires, storms, plant pests, animal diseases outbreaks, chemical spills and toxic algal blooms.

According to a new report  from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), between 2005 and 2015 natural disasters cost the agricultural sectors of developing country economies a staggering $96 billion in damaged or lost crop and livestock production.

Half of that damage -- $48 billion worth – occurred in Asia, says the report, which was launched at a conference in Hanoi convened by Viet Nam’s government in collaboration with FAO.

Drought – which recently has battered farmers in all corners of the globe, North, South, East and West – was one of the leading culprits. Eighty-three percent of all drought-caused economic losses documented by FAO’s study were absorbed by agriculture, with a price tag of $29 billion.

But the report also details how multiple other threats are taking a heavy toll on food production, food security, and people's livelihoods.

“The agriculture sectors – which includes crop and livestock production as well as forestry, fisheries and aquaculture –  face many risks, such as climate and market volatility, pests and diseases, extreme weather events, and an ever-increasing number of protracted crises and conflicts,” said FAO Director-General
“This has become the ‘new normal,’ and the impact of climate change will further exacerbate these threats and challenges,” he said.

“Disaster risk reduction and management must therefore become an integral part of modern agriculture. Building a more holistic and ambitious disaster-resilience framework for agriculture is crucial to ensuring sustainable development – which is a cornerstone for peace and the basis for adaptation to climate change,” argued the FAO Director-General.

The geography of disaster

In Asia – the world region where agriculture was most affected by disasters --floods and storms had the largest impacts, but Asian agricultural systems are also heavily affected by earthquakes, tsunamis and extreme temperatures.

For both Africa as well as for Latin America and the Caribbean, drought is the costliest type of disaster -- causing crop and livestock losses of $10.7 and $13 billion in those regions, respectively, between 2005 and 2015.

Crop pests and animal diseases were also among the most expense-inducing disasters for African farmers, notching up $6+ billion in losses in that same period. And across the globe, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, in particular tsunamis, earthquakes, storms  and floods. Economic losses in SIDS stemming from disasters jumped from $8.8 billion for the period 2000–2007 to over $14 billion between 2008–2015, the report shows.

Man-made disasters

Today's report expands the scale of FAO's analysis of disaster impacts to agriculture to include not just natural disasters but also "food chain crises" sparked by animal diseases like Rift Valley Fever.

It also addresses conflict. A first case study done on the impacts of conflict in Syria, for example, found that the overall financial cost of damage and loss in that country’s agriculture sector over the 2011–2016 period was at least $16 billion.

To reduce risks, first understand them

All told, nearly a quarter of all financial losses caused by natural disasters between 2005 and 2015 were borne by the agricultural sector, according to FAO’s study.

Given the increasing scale and intensity of threats to agriculture, developing adequate disaster and crisis governance structures – including enabling policies, strengthened capacities and targeted financing mechanisms – is critical, the report says.

To be effective, strategies for risk reduction, humanitarian responses, resilience building and climate change adaptation must be grounded on data and evidence detailing the ways that disasters affect farmers and food producers.

This is why FAO developed a methodology to assess systematically and agricultural damages and losses stemming from disasters. It provides a standardized approach that yields comparable results at global, national and subnational levels, and includes for the first time fisheries and forestry sector analyses on loss and damage, thus enabling more thorough and exact assessments. 

The FAO methodology has been endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly  as part of the monitoring system established under the 2015 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to help monitor the achievement of global disaster risk reduction targets as well as under the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda.
Livelihoods in the balance

The livelihoods of some 2.5 billion people on the planet depend on agriculture.

These small-scale farmers, herders, fishers and forest-dependent communities generate more than half of the world’s agricultural production.

Typically cash- and asset-poor, they are particularly at risk from disasters that destroy or damage harvests, equipment, supplies, livestock, seeds, crops and stored food.

          Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, typhoons, and hurricanes inflict serious damage and so seem to be bad for the economy. For firms, natural disasters destroy tangible assets such as buildings and equipment – as well as human capital – and thereby deteriorate their production capacity. These adverse impacts may sometimes be fatal to the firms and result in them being forced to close down.

But the academic evidence on the economic impact of natural disasters is mixed. As reviewed in surveys such as Noy and Vu (2010) and Loayza et al. (2012), the existing studies report that natural disasters may even promote growth. One possible mechanism behind this positive impact is the enhancement of the productivity of the economy’s corporate sector – as reported in Skidmore and Toya (2002) and Crespo-Cuaresma et al (2008). But because these studies use aggregate data, they cannot answer why and how corporate productivity improves due to natural disasters. We thus need analyses that use micro-data to clarify the mechanisms through which natural disasters affect the productivity of an economy’s corporate sector.

Natural disasters and corporate productivity: (1) Creative destruction

A channel through which natural disasters may enhance corporate productivity is the improvement in the productivity of firms that survive the disasters, which is due to the update of their capital stock and the adoption of new technologies. This mechanism is often called creative destruction.

There is some evidence for this hypothesis, although mixed. De Mel et al (2011) find that the firms that suffered more damage to their assets because of the devastating tsunami in Sri Lanka in 2004 exhibited smaller profits, sales, and capital stock.¹ Cole et al. (2013) and Tanaka (2015) find that the plants located in the most devastated districts during the 1995 Kobe Earthquake exhibited smaller employment and value-added growth. These findings are inconsistent with creative destruction.

On the other hand, Hosono et al. (2012) – who also focus on the Kobe Earthquake – find more investment by the firms located inside the affected area than those located outside, supporting the creative destruction hypothesis.  Also consistent with this hypothesis, Leiter et al (2009) find that European firms located in regions affected by a major flood in 2000 had higher asset and employment growth as compared with non-affected firms, although they also find that the firms in the affected regions exhibited smaller value-added.

Gender and family

Almost always, women or girls suffer more negative effects than do men or boys. Disaster recovery is more stressful when children are present in the home. Women with spouses also experience more distress during recovery. Having a family member in the home who is extremely distressed is related to more stress for everyone. Marital stress has been found to increase after disasters. Also, conflicts between family members or lack of support in the home make it harder to recover from disasters.

 

More CO2, increase in pests and diseases

Elevated CO2 can increase levels of simple sugars in leaves and lower their nitrogen content. These can increase the damage caused by many insects, who will consume more leaves to meet their metabolic requirements of nitrogen. Thus, any attack will be more severe. Higher temperatures from global warming, mainly due to elevated CO2, will mean that more numbers of pests will survive the winter season. Elevated CO2 will help in easier over-wintering of pathogens while higher temperatures will favour thermophilic fungi . Higher temperatures will lead to a poleward spread of many pests and diseases in both hemispheres. This will lead to more attacks over longer periods in the temperate climatic zone

Other possible effects of climate change need to be taken into account. On one hand, warmer temperature lowers the effectiveness of some pesticides but on the other hand, it favours insect carriers of many disease pathogens and natural enemies of pests and diseases. Thus, depending on the pest or pathogen, elevated CO₂ may act in a synergic or opposing manner with higher temperatures. Results of such interactions are difficult to be anticipated. Thus, one is obliged to wait for visual signs of appearance of a pest or disease for initiating action.

Elevated CO₂ levels and higher temperatures will keep changing the composition and duration of infective stages of pests and diseases. The current agromet models for anticipation and control of crop pests and diseases will thus be ineffective.

When to initiate action?

As mentioned above, elevated carbon dioxide and higher temperature may act in a synergic or opposing manner depending on the pest or pathogen concerned. The result of these changes cannot be foreseen as yet and waiting for visual appearance of a pest or disease to initiate action, is the only remaining option. Organising manual surveys to cover all major crop pests and diseases will be a very costly and nearly impossible.

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Under these circumstances, spore and insect trap data can assist in anticipating incidences of pests and diseases. A network spore and insect trapping centres to cover all major irrigated and rainfed crops and their pests and diseases needs to be set up. To ensure the network covers major irrigated crops with minimum stations, delineated homogenous rainfall zones and crop-climate zones need to be taken into account.

Summation of the mean air temperatures above a specified base value, known as accumulated degree-days, has been useful for anticipating the incidence of many crop pests and diseases. To overcome the unsuitability of calendar dates to begin calculations, the concept of Biofix is used. For a pest or a disease, Biofix date can mark the beginning of sustained trappimg of insects or disease spores.

It is crucial to measure the Economic Threshold Level (ETL)—the insect density at which control operations must begin to prevent crop loss from exceeding the cost of control operations. Economic Injury Level (EIL) is the insect density at which crop loss is more than the cost of control operations and varies with pests, crops and their growth stages. It is recommended to be taken as 75% of EIL.

Similarly in case of diseases, it is important to note the Critical Disease Level (CDL)—the point in time before which application of fungicides is not required and after which will be ineffective. Thus, for integrated management of pests and diseases using spore and insect trap data, it is necessary to laydown ETL and CDL criteria for important crop pests and diseases respectively.

Even within a season, there are variations in severity of pests and diseases. Thus, mid-seasonal advisories for resuming control action may be needed. In the case of some diseases, the above problem is sought to be overcome through the concept of Disease Severity Value, DSV.  In this, after a specified initial period, DSVs are commenced to be accumulated as per a formula and each day a DSV is calculated.  The ratings are accumulated to a threshold value that calls for initiation of action. After the action, DSV is set to zero and the accumulations commenced till they reach an assigned value calling for another spray and the process is repeated till end of the crop period. If adequate data is available, similar concept of Pest Severity Value, PSV can be developed.  PSV values for important crop pests need to be developed. In perennial orchards the trees are attacked by more than one generation of a pest. Thus, after fixing the first Biofix date and criterion for initial spraying of pesticide, a watch must be kept for increase in number of trap catches to fix subsequent Biofix dates and spraying criteria

The increase in temperatures will be more at night than during daytime. Higher nocturnal temperature will reduce the duration of Leaf-Wetness and result in lesser disease incidence. Biological control of a pest or disease through introduction of their natural enemies from other regions will become more effective. Warm temperatures will favour their quick establishment and development.

Forewarnings based on current crop position and expected weather are most effective when there is a time lag between the onset of favourable conditions and the manifestation of pest or disease affliction. Secondly, an initial inoculum is detected in insect or spore traps and the organism's phenological development is amenable to calculation by the accumulated degree days approach above a base value. The effectiveness of forewarnings of pests and diseases is maximal over large mono-cropped areas and minimal in situations of variegated cropping.

In India, most of the farm holdings are not only small but are also fragmented. Formation of farming cooperatives is the only way to consolidate the small holdings to facilitate integrated management of pests and diseases. The governments should act as facilitators in providing incentives for formation of farming cooperatives. It should also remove legal bottlenecks that hamper formation of cooperative farms and train farmers in cooperative crop management.

Torrential rainfall, cyclone may favour locust surge: FAO

Whitefly lesson

Heavy rainfall in northwest Africa, the Horn of Africa and Yemen can favour the breeding of Desert Locust, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said.

According to the United Nations (UN) food agency, close monitoring is needed over the next six months to prevent the locusts from damaging crops.

The Desert Locust is a kind of short-horned grasshopper that change behaviour and form swarms of adults or bands of hoppers. The swarms can be dense and mobile.

During quiet periods (known as recessions) Desert Locusts are usually restricted to the semi-arid and arid deserts of Africa, the Near East and South-West Asia that receive less than 200 mm of rainfall annually. During plagues, Desert Locusts may spread over an area of some 29 million square kilometres, extending over around 60 countries.

This is more than 20 per cent of the total land surface of the world. According to FAO, during plagues, the Desert Locust has the potential to damage the livelihood of a tenth of the world’s population.

Torrential rains

In northwest Africa, heavy rains fell over a widespread area of northern Mauritania, including the northwest of the country as well as adjacent areas of Western Sahara, southern Morocco and western Algeria between October 15 and 25.

Many places received several times more rainfall than what is usual throughout the year. As a result, ecological conditions are likely to remain favourable for Desert locust breeding and their survival for at least six months, even in the absence of further rainfall.

In the Arabian Peninsula, heavy rains associated with tropical cyclone Chapala fell in southern coastal and interior areas of Yemen on November 2-3.

In the Horn of Africa, above-average rainfall associated with a very strong El Nino is predicted to fall over northern Somalia during the winter and spring next year.

The locust situation in countries normally affected by the Desert Locust remained mostly calm in October with only small-scale breeding activity detected, experts said.

However, this can change, partly due to the impact of El Nino in Africa and tropical cyclones Chapala and Megh in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa.

“Extreme weather events, including torrential downpours, have the potential to trigger a massive surge in locust numbers. Rain provides moist soil for the insects to lay their eggs, which in turn need to absorb water, while rains also allow vegetation to grow which locusts need for food and shelter,” Keith Cressman, FAO senior locust forecasting officer, said.

“The effects of a locust plague can be devastating on crops and pastures and thus threaten food security and rural livelihoods.”

After becoming airborne, swarms of tens of millions of locusts can fly up to 150 km a day with the wind. Female locusts can lay 300 eggs within their lifetime while a Desert Locust adult can consume roughly its own weight in fresh food per day—about two grams every day. A very small swarm eats the same amount of food in one day as about 35,000 people.

Climate change and locust prevention

Experts said prevention, mainly through early warning and early reaction, is the key in reducing the extent to which Desert Locust can affect agricultural areas.

After unusually heavy rainfall, countries should start field surveys and maintain them on a regular basis for routine monitoring of breeding conditions and locust infestations.

While these measures are believed to have played an important role in the decline in the frequency and duration of plagues since the 1960s, today climate change is leading to more frequent, unpredictable and extreme weather events. This poses challenges on how to monitor locust activity.

Whereas locust numbers decrease during droughts, locust outbreaks often follow floods and cyclones. If not controlled, these outbreaks can lead to plagues.

Temperature governs the speed of locust development and warmer conditions can possibly shorten the incubation and maturation periods and lead to a rise in the number of locust generations in a year.

Impact on agricultural labour

 Due to losses of their primary crops, farmers are now reluctant to invest in their fields. After the floodwaters receded, most farmers cultivated varieties of crops of a shorter duration, largely by spreading seeds on the land as opposed to transplanting and sowing. Farmers also lacked the cash to hire labourers for weeding. This deprived already impoverished families, particularly women, of income. Demand for casual labour is expected to further reduce up to and during the harvest. 9.3 Impact on income generation Flood-affected farmers are likely to see sustained reductions in crop yield. The effect will vary depending on the type of farming (subsistence or marketing) and the variety of crop lost. Most of the poorest women, including the 23 percent of female-headed households in the regions and states assessed, rely heavily on the demand for agricultural casual labour, which has significantly reduced in the affected areas. Many women trade food commodities in local markets. Prices have risen since the floods, largely because disrupted road access made it harder to transport goods. Together with economic hardship in affected communities, this has resulted in reduced demand, which has impacted on traders in local markets. To cope with the income loss, women are borrowing food and seeds from local markets, or taking out loans from money lenders at high interest rates (minimum ten percent). Many other women have not been able to borrow money from lenders because they have pre-existing debt, having already borrowed prior to the floods. In addition, agricultural banks do not provide loans to buy small livestock, which are an important economic asset for women.